The fires that caused 33 deaths, destroyed more than 3,000 homes, and burned more than 10m hectares of bushland were accurately predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology and in line with predictions Australia’s peak scientific body laid down 30 years ago. And according to evidence given in the first day of public hearings in the royal commission into national natural disaster arrangements on Monday, fires of that scale will occur with greater frequency as the climate continues to heat.
Climate change was the focus of the hearing, despite prime minister Scott Morrison saying in February that the inquiry would focus on mitigation and adaptation, including to “changing climatic conditions” but would not consider the climate emergency. Braganza said both climate and weather forecasts were able to accurately predict the severity of a fire season, and that forecast was made available to fire agencies and governments in the middle of the year.
Dr Helen Cleugh, a senior principal research scientist with the CSIRO, said that the frequency of extreme El Niño, La Niña and Indian Ocean dipole events under global heating meant Australia would experience more extreme weather events in future, and that those events would not be able to be mitigated, or their severity predicted, by looking at what had occurred in the past. “Climate change means that the past is no longer a guide to future climate-related impacts and risks,” she said.
Source: Guardian
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