But tentative analysis from Carbon Brief points out likely reduction in CO2 this year would still be far off goals of the Paris Agreement . The global economic slowdown triggered by the escalating coronavirus crisis is on course to deliver the steepest annual fall in CO2 in history, with a larger reduction in emissions expected in 2020 than seen even during the Second World War, tentative analysis today from Carbon Brief indicates.
Recent weeks have seen unprecedented disruption to the global economy, with efforts to halt further spread of the deadly pandemic resulting in economies going into lockdown, travel restrictions that have drastically cut down on flights, major industrial and manufacturing closures, declining energy demand, and fewer people using fossil fuels to power cars, trains and boats.
As a result, studies suggest CO2 in Europe has dropped 58 per cent since lockdowns began several weeks ago, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting 7.5 per cent annual reduction in the USA’s energy-related carbon emissions during 2020.
And, projections released today by Carbon Brief suggest that, based on several sources of economic and emissions data, the pandemic could result in a global CO2 reduction in the region of 1,600 million tonnes compared to 2019, which would roughly equate to a four per cent fall in emissions. The five largest falls in annual global CO2 emissions ever recorded are shown in blue bars, in millions of tonnes of CO2. The grey bars illustrate how far emissions would fall in 2020 under a 1%, 3% or 5% reduction compared to 2019 levels.
While stressing the figure is “necessarily uncertain” due to a range of factors, a drop in CO2 to that effect would mark a greater reduction in emissions than seen during any previous economic crisis or wartime period, including both World Wars in 20th century, Carbon Brief said. The five previous biggest falls in emissions occurred during World War Two, the global recession in 1991-92, the early 1980s energy crisis, the Spanish flu pandemic shortly after the First World War, and the 2008 financial crash, according to the analysis.
Source: Business Green
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