If governments choose strong green policies and investments to revive economies after the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, an internationally agreed aim, researchers said on Friday. But if the world sticks to business as usual – even if some lockdown measures stay in place to the end of 2021 – global temperatures would only be roughly 0.01C lower than expected by 2030, found the study published in Nature Climate Change.
Large parts of the world’s economy ground to a halt earlier this year as travel and other restrictions were imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus, causing carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and other emissions to drop 10-30% globally. But that fall in planet-warming emissions was only temporary, noted study co-author Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia.
The study, led by the University of Leeds, estimated that including climate-friendly measures in economic recovery plans and in stimulus spending could prevent more than half of the warming expected by 2050 under today’s policies. Global average temperatures have already increased by about 1.1C since pre-industrial times. The strong green stimulus scenario used in the study involved spending 1.2% more of gross domestic product per year than now on low-carbon energy and efficiency measures over the next decade, and 0.4% less on fossil fuels, causing greenhouse gas emissions to fall by just over 50% by 2030.
The study also highlighted opportunities to reduce traffic pollution by encouraging low-emissions vehicles, public transport and cycle lanes, Forster added. So far in their coronavirus recovery packages, G20 nations have pledged $169 billion to support carbon-heavy fossil fuel industries, according to the Energy Policy Tracker, compiled by a group of research organisations. That represents 47% of all public money committed to the energy sector in coronavirus recovery packages, compared with 39% for clean energy, according to the tracker. But decisions made this year about how to recover from the coronavirus crisis could make or break climate change goals.
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation
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