Extreme droughts are likely to become much more frequent across central Europe, and if global greenhouse gas emissions rise strongly they could happen seven times more often, new research has shown. The area of crops likely to be affected by drought is also set to increase, and under sharply rising CO2 levels would nearly double in central Europe in the second half of this century, to more than 40m hectares (154,440 sq miles) of farmland.
By comparing the conditions with weather records dating back to 1766, and using computer models of climate change, researchers from UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany, were able to forecast that moderate reductions in greenhouse gases from their current levels would halve the likelihood of such extreme droughts, and shrink the affected land area by nearly 40%. Rohini Kumar, one of the authors of the study, told the Guardian the findings were concerning. “The findings indicate that introducing measures to reduce future carbon emissions may lower the risk of more frequent consecutive drought events across Europe. On the one hand, we need to step up our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases worldwide, and at the same time deal with strategies to adapt to climate change.”
The study adds to an increasing body of research showing the impacts of global heating on Europe. Previous studies have suggested that southern and central Europe will experience more drought, with one study projecting that European cities will become much hotter, with London forecast to have a climate more like Barcelona by 2050 and southern and central European cities seeing more extreme levels of heat.
Source: Guardian
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