Climate change made Siberian heatwave 600 times more likely – study

The record-breaking heatwave in the Siberian Arctic was made at least 600 times more likely by human-caused climate change, according to a study.

Between January and June, temperatures in the far north of Russia were more than 5C above average, causing permafrost to melt, buildings to collapse, and sparking an unusually early and intense start to the forest fires season. On 20 June, a monitoring station in Verkhoyansk registered a record high of 38C.

An attribution study shows such prolonged heat over the first six months of the year would have been almost impossible without the effect of greenhouse gas emissions from industry, transport and farming.

The team of researchers from international universities and meteorological services, including the PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology in the Russian Academy of Science, calculated this human impact added at least 2C of warming to the region.

Andrew Ciavarella, a lead author of the research and senior detection and attribution scientist at the Met Office, said the findings were staggering. “This research is further evidence of the extreme temperatures we can expect to see more frequently around the world in a warming global climate. Importantly, an increasing frequency of these extreme heat events can be moderated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Prof Olga Zolina, of the Institute of Oceanology in Moscow and another lead author, said the fate of Norilsk could be an indicator of what lies in store for other northern communities. “It means we should do something. This town is very small, with about 1,000 inhabitants. But there are other bigger cities in the Arctic circle. For them the mounting high temperatures are very important.”

Concerns are also growing that the high temperatures are worsening positive feedback loops by melting heat-reflecting ice and increasing the range and intensity of wildfires in Siberia, which is home to the world’s largest forest.

Source: Guardian

Author: Kirsi Seppänen